What is a 14-day forecast?

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We are currently providing site-specific 14-day forecasts for temperature and precipitation across the UK, via our website.

 

The 14 day forecasts provided here are produced from a Met Office product called "BestData" The concept behind BestData is to create an optimal blend of all available observations and numerical weather prediction (NWP) sources and produce the most accurate forecast from now though to day 15. Whilst  'Most Likely' solution (rather than a range of predictions) is most often required in products and services, BestData is also designed to provide detail of the spread of forecasts. Currently, BestData is built for site-specific forecasts.

Data sources in BestData include the gridded Nowcast (incorporating surface, satellite cloud and radar rainfall observations), high resolution NWP (including the 1.5km resolition UKV model), global weather models (from both the Met Office and ECMWF) and ensembles (large sets) of weather models (from both the Met Office and ECMWF).

The 14 day forecasts are produced from a set, or ensemble of predictions (rather than just one outcome) which are slightly different model versions and produce different outcomes.  So, the predictions give a spread of results, not just one prediction.

You can find out more about how they are produced here.

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LMTool provides seasonal winter weather forecasts (1-3 months ahead) in support of decision making on cover crop planting, choice and management.